RACHEL MEALEY: British Prime Minister Theresa May hasn't had a great day.
Members of her party have quit in protest at her draft Brexit plan, only hours after it passed Cabinet.
Her leadership is under threat, with suggestions that a 'no-confidence' motion is being planned in the party-room.
Despite all this, she's fighting on. She says she will take her deal to the British Parliament because "it's the best way forward for the people."
Doctor Annmarie Elijah is the associate director of the ANU's Centre for European Studies.
I spoke to her a short time ago.
Dr Annmarie Elijah, it's only been a day since Theresa May got her draft Brexit plan past her Cabinet and there have been ministerial resignations and talk of a 'no-confidence' motion.
How do you reflect on this state of turmoil in the UK?
ANNMARIE ELIJAH: In many ways we're seeing a similar pattern to what happened after the Chequers Cabinet meeting in July, where we saw, first of all, progress of a set of decisions through the Cabinet, which promptly unravelled within a couple of days.
So we've seen exactly the same kind of process again.
I guess, really, all of this comes about because we're moving closer towards the end of March, which is when the UK would formally leave the European Union under the terms of Article 50, which is the legal instrument under which a member state can leave the European Union.
So, as we get closer to that time, I think we're seeing the political efforts on both sides of the channel kind of being more and more concentrated in order to work out the terms of how to bring Brexit about.
And it is obviously a very complex process and it is proving enormously difficult for the British political system to cope with.
RACHEL MEALEY: What is it about Mrs May's draft deal that doesn't sit well with some members of her own party?
ANNMARIE ELIJAH: Well, ultimately the 500-page-odd document, which we're all trying to wade through at the moment, is an exercise in compromise; and as such, it hasn't really managed to please anybody.
So the forces inside the Conservative Party that favour a clean break from the European Union are not pleased because it leaves in place arrangements which would see a kind of semi-permanent link between the UK and the European Union; and that would have to go on until such time as other arrangements – for example, for trade and for the Northern Irish border – for all of that to be in place. So the Brexiteers don't like it for that reason.
On the other hand, those who would prefer to see the UK remain inside the European Union don't like it because it signals a move away from European integration.
So she's tried to please everybody with this document and unfortunately it doesn't look like she's managed to keep many people on board.
RACHEL MEALEY: It seems as though the Brexiteers just won't take anything less. Indeed, the man who she appointed to negotiate the deal, Dominic Raab, was the first to resign overnight.
What does that signal?
ANNMARIE ELIJAH: Well, exactly. I mean, I think it just signals the extent of the unease about this whole process in the Conservative Party at the moment and the political difficulties.
So now what we're seeing, really, between now and probably the end of March is a series of what I'm thinking of as kind of political break points where, in fact, further decisions have to be taken as we get closer to that deadline.
If a deal is not in place, of course, then the UK simply exits the European Union with all of the chaos that that might imply.
So that's why things are becoming more urgent.
And I think we're going to see — obviously this Cabinet process has been very difficult. We're now talking about 'no-confidence' motions. There will also need to be a UK parliamentary process, and, importantly, not to be forgotten, all of the political process for the EU-27 as well.
So there's a whole series of things that have to happen here and a range of scenarios that can be associated with any of those.
So we're definitely in unknown territory.
RACHEL MEALEY: Do you see a leadership spill as an inevitability in this process for Mrs May?
ANNMARIE ELIJAH: Look, it is perhaps not inevitable, but I think it is becoming more likely. The difficulty I see immediately is that they may not be able to raise enough numbers, in fact, to force a leadership spill; and on the other hand, the parliamentary process looks very fraught.
So we might be in a strange circumstance where the Prime Minister can't, in fact, get this deal through the Parliament but on the other hand, has not been successfully challenged in her own party.
RACHEL MEALEY: Is Boris Johnson lurking in the shadows?
ANNMARIE ELIJAH: Oh, I think a number of people are potentially lurking the shadows. But on the other hand, is it a job that anybody particularly wants at this juncture?
I mean, it is a very difficult set of circumstances that any British prime minister now has to face.
I guess that if this deal is generally regarded as unpalatable, one option could be to go back to the EU-27 and ask for more time and seek to renegotiate the deal. But on the other side of the channel, there appears to be almost no appetite for this.
So whoever inherits this job, if indeed Theresa May is successfully challenged, they have a very difficult task ahead of them unless they simply plan to have a no-deal Brexit, which would mean: exit at the end of March; and then they will have a series of other domestic political issues to handle in a very urgent way.
RACHEL MEALEY: Annmarie Elijah, thanks very much for joining The World Today.
ANNMARIE ELIJAH: Thank you, Rachel.
RACHEL MEALEY: That's Dr Annmarie Elijah, the associate director of the ANU's Centre for European Studies.
